TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF BREAST CANCER MORTALITY IN THE NORTHEAST REGION STATES UNDER THE EFFECTS OF AGE, PERIOD AND COHORT
Mortality; Breast neoplasm; Age Period Cohort Models; Northeast of Brazil.
Population aging associated with changes in reproductive behaviors and lifestyle has had an impact on the increase in incidence and mortality rates due to chronic non communicable diseases (CNCD), with emphasis on breast cancer - BC. Older age, declining fertility, late pregnancy, and increased use of oral contraceptives are examples of factors that contributed to this increase. Several studies have shown an increasing on time trends of these mortality rates in the last decades for Brazil, especially in the states of the Northeast region. However, a large part of these studies did not perform the correction of deaths, which is a primordial stage in research involving mortality rates from the 1980s and 1990s. In addition, a small number of studies focused on evaluating the cohort effects that allow to measure the level of exposure (risk and protection factors) over time in different generations and are so important in studies of time trends in mortality rates. The present study aims to identify if there are differences in the evolution of temporal effects (age, period and birth cohort) in breast cancer mortality in the states of the Northeast region, from 1980 to 2014. For this, the data obtained from the Mortality Information System - SIM will be corrected and the age, period and cohort model will be applied. Thus, with answers directed to the questions about temporal evidence of BC mortality in the Northeast that an ecological study can provide, this research intends to contribute to the CNCD combat Plan, by evaluating the trend of a disease of great transcendence and magnitude in the Brazil and its regions, and thus assist in the evaluation of the Cancer Care Policy in the states of the Northeast region.