Banca de DEFESA: RENATA BARBOSA MONTEIRO MACHADO

Sociodemographic Dynamics and Climatic Variability of the Brazilian Semi-Arid Region

The reality of the Brazilian Semi-Arid region is characterized by intense climatic variations, marked by prolonged droughts and increasing aridity, whose effects significantly compromise the region’s water, food, and socioeconomic security. The main objective of this study is to develop a homoclimatic typology for Brazil’s Semi-Arid region, with the purpose of identifying homogeneous climatic profiles and analyzing their relationship with regional sociodemographic dynamics. The meteorological data used in this study include precipitation, relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and wind speed. These data were obtained from the Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR-DWGD) database, which provides interpolated information on a spatial grid of 0.1° × 0.1°, covering the period from January 1, 1961, to December 31, 2020. For the analysis of sociodemographic dynamics, 18 indicators from the 1991, 2000, and 2010 Population Censuses were used, encompassing variables representative of living conditions and municipal development, such as infant mortality rate, Human Development Index (HDI), and urbanization rate, among others.To elaborate the homoclimatic typology for the 1,427 municipalities that comprise the Brazilian Semi-Arid region, a Cluster Analysis was applied using the Ward method as the linkage criterion. This technique allowed the identification of four distinct climatic zones, referred to as SAB I, II, III, and IV. Such an approach proved suitable for handling large datasets and integrating multiple meteorological variables, providing a more detailed and precise characterization of regional climatic conditions.The results indicate that the Brazilian Semi-Arid region has experienced rising temperature trends, intensified droughts, and increased vulnerability in specific areas, such as SAB III, which is characterized by severe aridity and limited access to basic infrastructure. Although sociodemographic indicators have shown progress over recent decades, regional inequalities persist, highlighting the need for more targeted strategies.Therefore, it becomes essential to analyze age and sociodemographic indicators across the four identified clusters in order to understand the population particularities of each profile and their relationship with existing socio-environmental vulnerabilities, thus enabling the identification of specific patterns and supporting the formulation of more effective structural policies.