Banca de DEFESA: LUCAS LUAN MAIA DE LIMA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : LUCAS LUAN MAIA DE LIMA
DATE: 29/08/2025
TIME: 15:00
LOCAL: sala de informática, 1° andar, prédio do NECLIM
TITLE:

HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF THE EFFECT OF THE EXPANSION OF URBAN AREAS ON THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF THE PITIMBU RIVER WATERSHED

KEY WORDS:

Water Availability, Hydrological Extremes, Water Provisioning Ecosystem Services.

PAGES: 70
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Meteorologia Aplicada
SUMMARY:

Water security is one of the main challenges for water resources management and urban supply in Brazil. Its assurance depends on the conservation and restoration of water sources, as well as on maintaining a supply compatible with multiple uses. The imbalance of the water balance represents a central dimension of water insecurity and may favor the occurrence of water crises. Among the processes contributing to this imbalance, urban expansion stands out. In this context, the Pitimbu River watershed, which supplies approximately 30% of the southern zone of Natal (RN), has undergone intense land-use and land-cover changes, primarily driven by urbanization. Despite its importance, few studies have examined the effects of these changes on the basin’s hydrological regime and their implications for future water security. The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of urbanization and its expansion on the hydrological regime of the Pitimbu River watershed. Long-term hydrological simulations (exceeding 30 years) were carried out using the distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, which integrates physical spatial data (topography, vegetation cover, and soil types) and meteorological variables. Three land-use and land-cover scenarios were considered, corresponding to the years 1985, 2022, and 2047. Spatial analysis revealed a 20% increase in urbanization during the historical period, with an additional 12% projected by 2047, indicating an accelerated process of land occupation. The simulation results show significant alterations in the hydrological regime, with intensified surface runoff and reduced groundwater recharge. Flow duration curves, their quantiles, and the annual flow cycle confirm greater irregularity in the regime, with increased instability between flood and drought periods. Consequently, a shift was observed in the temporal distribution of flows, characterized by rising peak flows and declining minimum flows, which compromise the stability of water supply over time. These findings highlight growing risks to the region’s water security and underscore the need for management strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of urbanization.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Interna - 1057105 - SANDRA ISAY SAAD
Externa à Instituição - KARINNE REIS DEUSDARA LEAL - UNIFEI