Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: WENDY LU ARAMAYO ALONSO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : WENDY LU ARAMAYO ALONSO
DATE: 28/08/2025
TIME: 08:00
LOCAL: On Line
TITLE:

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN PRESENT AND FUTURE SCENARIOS USING CLIMATE MODELS OVER THE AMAZON BASIN AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH NATURAL DISASTERS

KEY WORDS:

Climate change; extreme weather indices; ENSO; climate modeling; vulnerability.

PAGES: 112
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

The Amazon Basin, recognized as the largest tropical forest on the planet and a central element in the global climate system, is subjected to increasing pressures resulting from climate change and intense anthropogenic transformations, such as deforestation and land-use and land-cover conversion. Recent evidence points to the intensification of extreme climate events, such as prolonged droughts, historic floods, and extreme temperatures, with severe impacts on ecosystems, water security, agricultural production, and vulnerable populations. This thesis project proposes to analyze the evolution of extreme climate events in the Amazon Basin, considering present and future scenarios, with the objective of establishing their relationships with the occurrence of natural disasters and identifying areas of greater climate risk. The research will be developed in two main stages: (i) historical analysis (1981–2023) of extreme climate indices defined by ETCCDI, based on observational data (CHIRPS, ERA5-Land) and natural disaster records (EM-DAT), establishing their associations with global climate drivers, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and (ii) future projections (2030–2060 and 2070–2099) based on ISIMIP and CORDEX simulations, considering different emission scenarios (RCPs/SSPs). The proposed approach will integrate statistical methods, trend analysis (Mann-Kendall test), and clustering techniques (K-means) to identify spatiotemporal patterns and characterize compound events, such as extreme droughts associated with intense heat or extreme rainfall during La Niña episodes. The results are expected to provide a comprehensive diagnosis of changes in extreme climate patterns and highlight trends of intensification of these events, offering scientific support for the formulation of public policies on mitigation, adaptation, and natural disaster management in the Amazon.  

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externa à Instituição - BEATRIZ FUNATSU - nantes
Presidente - 1280761 - CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA
Interna - 1346630 - LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE
Interno - 3217859 - PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI
Interno - ***.072.934-** - WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES - UFCG