Banca de DEFESA: KALINE MURIEL DE FIGUEIREDO GOMES

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : KALINE MURIEL DE FIGUEIREDO GOMES
DATE: 11/08/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Auditório do CCET - Defesa Hibrida
TITLE:

EVOLUTION OF LAND USE AND OCCUPATION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE STREAMFLOW OF THE MAXARANGUAPE WATERSHED: A HISTORICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL MODELING ANALYSIS

KEY WORDS:

Water resources, deforestation, SWAT, InVEST

PAGES: 97
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Meteorologia Aplicada
SUMMARY:

Unplanned agricultural expansion accelerates the transformation of land use and occupation, putting pressure on natural ecosystems and damaging water resources. Although there are extensive deforested areas in Brazil, agricultural expansion still occurs over natural ecosystems, such as the Maxaranguape River Basin, where this pressure is pronounced, with the conversion of natural areas into agricultural areas. The objective of this study was to analyze the evolution of land use and occupation and its impacts on the flow regime of the Maxaranguape River Basin, based on the analysis of trends in hydroclimatic variables and hydrological modeling. In the latter, two scenarios were considered: an optimistic one (S1), in which agricultural expansion occurs over degraded pasture areas; and the other current trend scenario (S2), in which agricultural expansion occurs over natural vegetation. The trend analysis of the historical series of precipitation and evapotranspiration did not indicate a significant change, on the other hand, the analysis of the average flow indicated a significant decrease of 0.07 m³s-1 per year (2.28% per year of the average annual flow). In the analysis of land use and occupation, it was noted that the rate of agricultural expansion grew by 5.8 km²/year in the river basin. This rate was the basis for projecting scenarios S1 and S2 for 15 years, which resulted in an increase of 5% and 9% of the agricultural area, respectively. The impact of this expansion resulted in an increase in surface runoff of 11.8% and 13.2%, while underground flow suffered a decrease of 0.6% and 1.1% in scenarios S1 and S2, respectively. In general, the results showed that, in both scenarios, there was a decrease in minimum flows and an increase in maximum flows, but with different patterns depending on the river section of the river basin evaluated. For all river sections analyzed, the current trend scenario (S2) reduced the minimum flow more, especially the largest minimum flows. The decrease in the minimum flow weakens water availability and, considering the frequent occurrence of droughts in northeastern Brazil, the current trend scenario S2 promotes greater water insecurity. On the other hand, agricultural expansion over degraded pasture areas (S1), an acceptable scenario, would bring less hydrological disservice, as it would prevent the advance of agricultural areas over natural vegetation and reduce the impact on water availability.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Interna - ***.212.764-** - DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES - UFPI
Externa ao Programa - 2190974 - JOANA DARC FREIRE DE MEDEIROS - UFRNExterno à Instituição - FABRÍCIO DANIEL DOS SANTOS SILVA - UFAL
Externo à Instituição - JEAN LEITE TAVARES - IFRN