Trend Analysis of Climate Extremes Indices in Goiás
RClimdex, Mann-Kendall, Climate Change
Climate exerts a direct influence on human life, shaping everything from basic needs such as food and housing to the impacts of human activities on the climate system, which are intensified by population growth and the excessive consumption of resources. This scenario has contributed to the rise in global temperatures and the intensification of extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, with significant socio-environmental consequences. In Brazil, especially in the Cerrado biome, changes in land use and land cover driven by agricultural expansion have worsened these impacts by altering the regional microclimate. This study aims to analyze extreme indices of precipitation and air temperature, as well as to identify trends associated with climate change in the state of Goiás. For this purpose, hourly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature data were used for the cities of Catalão, Formosa, Goianésia, Goiânia, and Rio Verde. Eleven indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were calculated, and their trends and magnitudes were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator, respectively. The results indicate no statistically significant trends in the analyzed extreme precipitation indices, suggesting a relative stability in rainfall patterns in the studied locations during the evaluated period. In contrast, the temperature indices revealed consistent upward trends for both minimum and maximum temperatures. This thermal increase, observed in all analyzed municipalities, points to a possible regional warming process in the state of Goiás. The identified trends reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive actions in response to the impacts of climate change, especially in regions undergoing significant land use changes, such as the Cerrado of Goiás.