ENERGY TRANSITION AND THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST: A REGIONAL/LOCAL APPROACH USING THE DIFF-IN-DIFF METHOD, IN THE PERIOD 1998 TO 2021.
Renewable energy. Brazilian Northeast. Regional/local development. Difference-in-Differences (Diff-in-Diff).
This study aims to analyze the integration of renewable energy sources in the Brazilian Northeast and their implications for regional/local development using the Difference-in-Differences (Diff-in-Diff) method with multiple time periods. The dataset consists of panel data covering the period from 1998 to 2021, drawn from RAIS, IBGE, ANEEL, MapBiomas, and PNAD. Initial results show that the effects on deforestation are heterogeneous, varying across the territories where the projects were implemented, with some evidence of increased deforestation during periods of renewable energy boom. On the other hand, the impacts on employment vary by sector, showing more consistent effects in construction and services, although with temporal fluctuations. Regarding social impacts, negative effects are observed in the subregions where these projects are concentrated. The results also support the initial hypothesis of this study: that the impacts of renewable energy deployment differ in intensity and nature across the three major expansion phases over more than two decades of project development in the Northeast. These findings contribute to the broader debate on energy transition, especially when considering regional specificities and territorial impacts.