FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT IN BUDGETARY CONSTRAINT CONTEXTS: ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS AND COPING STRATEGIES IN A FEDERAL EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION - IFRN - SANTA CRUZ CAMPUS (2019-2025)
Budgetary restriction. Public financial management. Federal Institute. Punctuated Equilibrium Theory. Incremental Theory. Educational public policies.
This research analyzes the impacts of financial resource allocation under budgetary restriction on the core activities of IFRN – Santa Cruz campus, from 2019 to 2025, situated within the Public Policies research line of PROFIAP. The theoretical framework draws on Incremental Theory and Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, complemented by the literature on public budgeting and budgetary constraints. The methodology is quantitative and descriptive-exploratory, with data from SIAFI, Tesouro Gerencial, and institutional management reports, deflated by the IGPDI/FGV index. Seven budgetary variables were analyzed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests at a 5% significance level. Results reveal persistent budgetary restriction: real credit provisions in 2025 were approximately 36% below 2019 levels, against accumulated inflation of 38% to 39.5%. Six variables showed an incremental pattern; only equipment expenditures confirmed punctuated equilibrium, with kurtosis of 5.287 and oscillations of -85.46% (2020) and +781.05% (2021). Student assistance expenditures followed a declining trajectory without sustained recovery. The originality lies in the articulated application of both theories to a federal institute campus in Brazil's northeastern hinterland under prolonged austerity, filling an empirical gap. Practical contributions encompass real and potential impacts across organizational (budgetary planning and control improvement); scientific (expanding evidence on budgetary theories in federal institutes); societal (undermining retention of vulnerable students) and public policy dimensions (reinforcing the need for more stable and equity-oriented education financing).