CHARACTERIZATION OF THE GEOSPACE ENVIRONMENT AND EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE FAILURE MODES OF THE IS-33E SATELLITE IN GEO ORBIT
Space weather, geomagnetic storms, relativistic electrons, internal charging,
geostationary satellites, Van Allen radiation belt, Parker Spiral.
This study investigates the possible relationship between the space environment and the
catastrophic failure of the geostationary satellite IntelSat-33e (IS-33e), which occurred on 19
October 2024 and resulted in the generation of approximately 500 debris fragments in GEO.
Given that the event coincided with a period of intensified solar activity during Solar Cycle 25,
the research aims to characterize the geospace conditions before, during, and after the anomaly,
with emphasis on assessing internal charging processes as a plausible failure mechanism. To
this end, geomagnetic indices (Dst, SYM-H, and Kp), interplanetary parameters from the OMNI
dataset (IMF Bz, solar wind speed, and dynamic pressure), and relativistic electron fluxes (>2
MeV) measured by the GOES-16 satellite are analyzed. The methodology also incorporates the
Parker spiral model to estimate the heliographic longitudes of the CMEs associated with the
geomagnetic storms, combined with temporal and comparative analyses linking solar
disturbances, magnetospheric response, and variations in the outer Van Allen belt. Preliminary
results identified two intense geomagnetic storms, on 6 and 10–11 October 2024, followed by
a sustained enhancement in relativistic electron flux lasting more than five days, reaching levels
significantly above the typical GEO climatology. The continuation of this research includes the
application of FMEA/FMECA (ECSS-Q-ST-30-02C) and Fault Tree Analysis (IEC 61025 /
ECSS-Q-ST-40-12C) to systematically investigate potential failure modes linked to the
disturbed space environment. The expected outcomes aim to provide a preliminary technical
diagnosis of the IS-33e failure and highlight the importance of mitigation strategies, radiation-
hardening practices, and continuous space weather monitoring to enhance the reliability and
safety of future geostationary missions.