Resumo

Estimates of fertility in small areas are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. In these circumstances estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required; they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas; and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step procedure for estimating total fertility in such circumstances and illustrate it by applying the method to data from the 2000 Brazilian Census for over 5,000 municipalities. Our proposed procedure first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods and then applies a new variant of Brass's P/F parity correction procedure that is robust to conditions of rapid fertility decline. Supplementary material at the project website ( http://schmert.net/BayesBrass ) will allow readers to replicate all the authors' results in this paper using their data and programs.

Programação

Conferência| 05.08.2015

 Estimating Total Fertility for Many Small Areas from Sparse Census Data

Local: Anfiteatro A do CCET

Campus Central – UFRN

Natal, RN

Horário: 14h30

Públicos Alvo

Interno:

Discentes dos cursos de graduação (ciências sociais, geografia, estatística, políticas públicas, economia, entre outros) e pósgraduação (demografia, ciências sociais, estudos urbanos e regionais, economia, entre outros), pesquisadores e público em geral

Externo:

Pesquisadores, gestores de políticas públicas, público em geral

Membros da Equipe

MARCOS ROBERTO GONZAGA Categoria: DOCENTE Função : COORDENADOR(A) ADJUNTO(A)

MARIO VINICIUS DE LIMA PEREIRA Categoria: SERVIDOR Função : AUXILIAR TÉCNICO

RICARDO OJIMA Categoria: DOCENTE Função : COORDENADOR(A)

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